This Week's Picks
Luke Riley vs Kai Kamaka
July 4, 2026
Luke Riley’s -312 moneyline implies a 75.8% probability of victory according to the sportsbooks, while Kai Kamaka’s +250 odds represent roughly a 28.6% implied win probability....
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Tracy Cortez vs Wang Cong
July 4, 2026
At -110 moneylines for both fighters, the implied probability for each side is approximately 52.4%, suggesting the market views this as a competitive matchup with a...
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Legacy pick 7 (pre-automation)
July 4, 2026
Pick from the manually tracked record that predates the automated pipeline. Imported for track-record continuity.
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Legacy pick 6 (pre-automation)
July 4, 2026
Pick from the manually tracked record that predates the automated pipeline. Imported for track-record continuity.
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Ryan Gandra vs Zachary Reese
July 4, 2026
The consensus moneyline of -154 for Ryan Gandra implies a probability of approximately 60.6%, while Zachary Reese’s +135 line suggests roughly 42.6% implied probability (with the...
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Cody Durden vs Alessandro Costa
July 4, 2026
The consensus moneyline shows Costa as a -263 favorite (implying ~72.5% win probability) while Durden sits at +210 (implying ~32.3% win probability). This represents a significant...
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Max Holloway vs Conor McGregor
July 4, 2026
The consensus moneylines imply Max Holloway at approximately 70% win probability (-233 converts to 0.700) versus Conor McGregor at 34% (converts to 0.340). The 4% discrepancy...
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Paddy Pimblett vs Benoit Saint-Denis
July 4, 2026
The consensus odds show Benoit Saint-Denis as the favored fighter at -154, implying approximately 60.6% implied probability of victory. Conversely, Paddy Pimblett’s +130 moneyline translates to...
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Oscar Ownsworth vs Gabriele Galluccio
July 3, 2026
The consensus moneylines imply a 54.3% probability for Galluccio (-125) and a 48.8% probability for Ownsworth (+105). This leaves approximately 3% vigorish (sportsbook margin). Ownsworth’s +105...
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Geoff Pavey vs David Allen
July 3, 2026
Geoff Pavey’s -143 moneyline implies a 58.9% win probability, while David Allen’s +130 line implies a 43.5% probability. The consensus market has installed Pavey as a...
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